Quiet Maddelena
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |