5
Rosieposie
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |