1
Springer
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |