Your Valentino
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 75
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |