5
Mrs. Hot Shot
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 73
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |