Ondine Lady
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/10/2025 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |