5
Gran Ghost
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 61
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength84%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2025-07-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |