2
Imperial War
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |