IvyArcIvyArc
1

Super Red

3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 69

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 29/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS29/05C7C7 @ Woodbine 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 63 par18/06C7OR 63C7 @ Woodbine 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 68 par18/07C7OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-06-18Woodbine?3rd1st+2
2026-05-29Woodbine?7th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0518/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +12.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
18/06/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
18/07/20266th12/137%29%-0.08