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Forester's Fortune

9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 90

Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 21/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 105 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 105 par21/09C6OR 105C6 @ Woodbine 12/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 105 parC6 @ Woodbine 02/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 106 · 5f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 106 par2/11C6OR 106C6 @ Woodbine 23/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 106 · 5f110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 106 parC8 @ Woodbine 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 6f 123 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 95 par17/05C8OR 95C8 @ Woodbine 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 6f 121 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 95 parC6 @ Woodbine 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 93 · 5f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 93 par5/07C6OR 93C6 @ Woodbine 02/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 95 · 5f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Woodbine 21/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 89 par21/08C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Woodbine?9th9th0
2026-08-02Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-07-05Woodbine?2nd0th+2
2026-06-21Woodbine?6th6th0
2026-05-17Woodbine?3rd3rd0
2025-11-23Woodbine?7th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0923/115/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20252nd5/174%75%+0.01
12/10/20254th5/174%50%-0.24
02/11/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
23/11/20257th4/179%14%-0.65
17/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
21/06/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
05/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
02/08/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
21/08/20269th8/158%0%-0.58