Lazio
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |