Napa Spirit
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 11/8 | 93% | 13% | -0.80 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |