Pine Knoll
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |