Vamos Viejo
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |