1
Sprung Loose
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 6 - Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |