1
Secret Threat
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 05/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |