13:12 · Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Ian Balding)

6fGoing TBCClass 12YO onlyTURF8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 110
6/5
Arapaho Gold silks

Doug Graham And Carole Dods

2yo Gelding · 9-6

Bayside Boy - Call Of The Jungle (Bungle Inthejungle)

Connor Beasley60%4/4M Dods
1111
9.0Going 9.0

Impressive winner of maiden/novice events at Thirsk on first 2 starts before taking the step up to listed level in his stride at Newbury in July. Displayed a cracking attitude in the Gimcrack at York (6f, good to soft) last month to remain unbeaten and he sets the standard under a penalty.

Class Advantage

2/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/051/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/0717/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/0721/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%2/05Pos 1 · SP 2/9 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 2/9 | Actual: 100%1/07Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%21/08
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.8%Ahead 3/4
8
3
OR 103
2/1
Jolivette silks

Juddmonte

2yo Filly · 9-0

Wootton Bassett - Jovial (Dubawi)

Colin Keane0/3A M Balding60%
1953
5.0

Created a fine impression when winning Newmarket novice on debut. Too keen to do herself justice on her next 2 outings but much more like it when a fine 1½ lengths third of 17 to Libertango in Lowther Stakes (25/1) at York (6f, soft) 30 days ago, clear of rest. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a16/0519/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a19/0610/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par10/0720/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%16/05Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%19/06Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 43%10/07Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 88%20/08
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.9%Ahead 4/4
6
2
OR 104
4/1
Nabati silks

Godolphin

2yo Colt · 9-3

Night Of Thunder - Pronouncement (Declaration Of War)

W Buick60%1/3C Appleby60%
1213
8.0Going 9.0

850,000 gns Night of Thunder colt easily won at Yarmouth (6f) on debut and improved when beaten just a neck to Arapaho Gold in 6f Newbury listed race next time. Completed a simple task at Newmarket after and showed better form when 1½ lengths third of 9 in another listed race at Doncaster last week.

Class Advantage

2/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/0717/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a17/077/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par7/0811/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/9 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 2/9 | Actual: 100%2/07Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 89%17/07Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Actual: 100%7/08Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 75%11/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength60%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.9%Ahead 2/4
2
4
OR 106
12/1
Adaay Of Scarlett silks

SVG, Exact Lifestyle Ltd & Owen

2yo Colt · 9-3

Mehmas - Adaay To Remember (Adaay)

Rossa Ryan70%0/1H Palmer60%
222257
4.0Going 10.0

Opened his career with wins at Newmarket and Ascot and runner-up next 4 outings at listed/Group 2 level, including the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood (6f). Failed to travel with the same fluency on softer ground in the Gimcrack but fewer excuses for a below-par effort in the Sirenia 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

28/05 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a28/0516/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a9/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par30/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par21/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par5/09 · C1 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength19%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 86%28/05Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 95%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%9/07Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 56%21/08Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 14%5/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength1%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -24.1%Ahead 1/4
5
8
OR 95
50/1
Mr Macartney silks

Barham Masterton Sweeting Severn Eddis

2yo Gelding · 9-3

Ubettabelieveit - Blue Moonrise (Gutaifan)

Ray Dawson0/3Oli Rix60%
417676
3.0
Visor

Leicester maiden winner (5f, good to firm) in April but his limitations have been exposed upped in grade on his last 3 starts, his latest ½ lengths sixth of 10 to Man's Best Friend in Richmond Stakes at Goodwood 51 days ago rated as a career best. Has since been gelded.

Class Advantage

10/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a10/0425/04 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a15/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a28/05 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par30/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%10/04Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%15/05Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 70%20/06Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 44%30/07
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +39.0%Ahead 4/4
7
6
OR 90
66/1
Revels silks

Ms L Mars

2yo Colt · 9-3

Lope De Vega - Snooze N You Lose (Ribchester)

Callum Rodriguez60%K R Burke60%
1910
4.0

350,000 gns Lope de Vega colt. Decisively landed the odds first time at Redcar (7f) and was much improved when coming home with a rattle to make a winning nursery debut at Glorious Goodwood (6f). Didn't have an ideal track position on softer ground at York last time but this will require much more.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a18/0518/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a18/0631/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/0720/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength19%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%18/05Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 38%18/06Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%31/07Pos 10 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 10 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 47%20/08
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.4%Ahead 3/4
4
7
OR 91
50/1
Matteo silks

Mrs J Ryan

2yo Colt · 9-3

Coulsty - Debutante's Ball (Society Rock)

Shane Gray60%K A Ryan
117
5.0Going 8.0

Won a pair of 5f Beverley novices on good to firm in the spring but after a 12-week break, he seemingly didn't get home upped to 6f on a softer surface in the Gimcrack 4 weeks ago. Much more needed here.

Class Advantage

23/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/0430/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a30/0521/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%23/04Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%30/05Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 33%21/08
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.8%Ahead 3/3
3
5
OR 102
20/1
Cut A Dash silks

Denford Stud

2yo Colt · 9-3

Starspangledbanner - Promising (Invincible Spirit)

J P Spencer60%R Hannon60%
1494
4.0

Looked an exciting prospect when making a winning debut at the York Dante meeting and built on that when length fourth of 21 in Coventry at Royal Ascot (6f, good to firm) 5 weeks later. Underperformed at Goodwood and Deauville on his last 2 outings, though.

Class Advantage

13/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a13/0516/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/0630/07 · C0 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par30/0716/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%13/05Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 85%16/06Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 11%30/07Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 25%16/08
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.9%Ahead 2/4