15:30 · Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str)

1mGoing TBCClass 43YO onlyTURFHandicap10 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
2
OR 85
3/1
Abundant silks

The Abundant Syndicate

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Lucky Vega - Emreliya (Danehill Dancer)

S M Levey70%1/4T Ward
143351
8.0Going 8.0

Had been running well in handicaps this season, before finding some progress taking on his elders for the first time when scoring over this C&D last month. Yet to run a bad race so he's not taken lightly.

Class Advantage

24/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/1011/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par19/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par30/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par26/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above26/08 · mark par26/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%24/10Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 78%19/06Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 78%30/07Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%26/08
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.4%Ahead 4/4
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 87
5/2
Drymee silks

Parr For The Course

3yo Gelding · 9-11

Lope Y Fernandez - Dame Helen (Royal Applause)

Daniel Muscutt70%0/1J R Fanshawe60%
471131
9.0Going 9.0

Made it back-to-back wins when successful on handicap debut over this C&D in July. Ran creditably next time and soon resumed winning ways at Sandown 22 days ago, winning easily despite hanging right. Up 10 lb in the weights for his latest success.

Class Advantage

9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/0920/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par8/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par28/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par28/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 70%9/09Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%6/06Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 60%8/08Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%28/08
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.1%Ahead 3/4
9
3
OR 76
8/1
Aura Champagne silks

Georginio Rutter & Jinky Farms

3yo Filly · 9-0

Dark Angel - Aperitif (Pivotal)

J P Spencer60%R Hannon60%
3332
8.0Going 9.0Class ↓2

Showed promise when third in a pair of novices at this course on first 2 starts. No match for the odds-on winner at Windsor (1¼m) 12 days ago, but she could still have more to offer as she goes handicapping back down in trip.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/0918/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/073/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/087/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%19/09Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%18/07Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%3/08Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 83%7/09
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.4%Ahead 3/4
4
6
OR 84
11/2
Storming Point silks

Neal And Sheralee Grayston

3yo Colt · 9-8

Blue Point - Princesschope (Panis)

R L Moore60%0/2G & J Moore60%
232265
5.0Class ↓2Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Placed on first 4 starts and has shaped promisingly sent handicapping the last twice, never-nearer fifth of 19 at York's Ebor meeting. Could be ready to open his account as he drops in grade.

Class Advantage

24/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/1027/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a8/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par30/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par21/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 86%24/10Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 78%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 90%8/06Pos 2 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 2 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 83%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 72%30/07Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 78%21/08
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.1%Ahead 3/4
7
5
OR 81
8/1
Crossbar silks

Mr J Kimber & Aura Racing

3yo Gelding · 9-5

Phoenix Of Spain - Scintillating (Cape Cross)

Rossa Ryan70%1/1C G Cox
13
7.0

Looked above average when making a winning debut in 7f novice at Kempton in May. Wasn't able to improve when third at Wetherby next time, but the form has been boosted by the first 2 since. Remains with potential as he makes a quick switch to handicaps.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/0515/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a15/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%20/05Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 80%15/06
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.7%Ahead 1/2
3
4
OR 84
10/1
Starlight Time silks

Mr Colin Matthew

3yo Colt · 9-8

Time Test - Spirit Raiser (Invincible Spirit)

Ray Dawson1/4R Varian80%
188517
4.0Class ↓2

Down the field in turf handicaps on first 3 outings this season, but produced a career best when scoring on the all-weather at Kempton last month. Left poorly placed when 2 lengths last of 7 at the same course 15 days ago, so he could bounce back (turf winner on debut).

Class Advantage

6/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/11 · mark par6/116/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par1/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/08 · mark par19/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/2 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Actual: 100%6/11Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 30%10/07Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%19/08Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%4/09
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -31.3%Ahead 1/4
5
7
OR 84
10/1
Astrazar silks

Dubai Thoroughbred Racing

3yo Gelding · 9-8

Starman - Zara Mac (Mehmas)

K Shoemark60%0/5E Walker80%
197420
4.0Class ↓2
1st Blinkers +3

Successful upped to 7f on final starts last year and got back on the up this season when going close in handicap at Newmarket (1m) in July. Drawn widest and again slowly away when down the field at York on latest outing. Blinkers added back down in grade.

Class Advantage

10/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/10 · mark par10/1017/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par30/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par27/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par21/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%10/10Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 54%30/05Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 57%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 80%18/07Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 28%21/08
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength54%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.2%Ahead 2/4
6
8
OR 82
33/1
Back To Me silks

Mrs R Lyon

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Magna Grecia - Nazaaha (Shamardal)

Callum Hutchinson60%0/1P R Chamings
116200
3.0Class ↓2

Both wins on all-weather, making a successful seasonal debut for Ben Haslam in a Southwell novice (7f) in April. However, well held in handicap at York (6f) on final run for that yard and down the field on stable debut at Newmarket last month. Up in trip.

Class Advantage

5/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/115/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a26/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above26/04 · mark par27/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par13/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par22/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%5/11Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%26/04Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 18 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 19%13/06Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 25%22/08
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.9%Ahead 4/4
10
9
OR 69
20/1
Starlight Sami silks

Mrs Christine F Young

3yo Gelding · 8-7

Earthlight - Samite (Distorted Humor)

S De Sousa60%D J Coakley
831079
3.0Going 8.0

Confirmed the promise of his return when opening account in handicap at Salisbury (7f) in May. Has gone backwards from that effort in 3 subsequent outings, though.

Class Advantage

10/12 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/12 · mark par10/1214/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/04 · mark par23/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/06 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par20/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%10/12Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%23/05Pos 10 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 10 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 18%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 33%17/07Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 20%20/08
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -28.4%Ahead 1/4
8
10
OR 77
20/1
Aqua Bear silks

Midtech

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Kodi Bear - Malilla (Red Clubs)

Charles BishopIan Williams60%
140300
3.0Class ↓2
1st Hood +1

Won 7f maiden at Newcastle on first start for present stable in November. Shaped well when third in handicap at Carlisle (1m) in June but not in the same form last 2 outings. Hood now reached for.

Class Advantage

22/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/11 · mark par22/118/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/05 · mark par23/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par24/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par30/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par30/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%22/11Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 16 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 16 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 6%23/05Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 11 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 11 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%10/07Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 11%30/07
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -19.6%Ahead 2/4