12:35 · Haydock

William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap

7f 212yHeavy (Soft in places)Class 23YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
5
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 96
7/2
Eternal Force silks

Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum

4yo Gelding · 9-6

Dubawi - Ghaziyah (Galileo)

Cieren Fallon70%0/2W J Haggas60%
117267
5.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Capped a productive 3-y-o season with a hat-trick success over C&D (good to soft) last October. Below par both starts since going close in a tactical race at Hamilton in June. Lurking on a dangerous mark if return to this track/another change of headgear does the trick, though.

Class Advantage

20/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/0917/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above17/10 · mark par28/03 · C2 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par4/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par25/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par20/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%20/09Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 70%28/03Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 38%25/06Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 54%20/08
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.2%Ahead 1/4
6
Value2
OR 96
7/1
Arctic Thunder silks

Chris & David Stam

5yo Gelding · 9-6

Night Of Thunder - Al Kirana (Exceed And Excel)

K Shoemark60%2/7E Walker
768116
6.0

Very much back on the up when completing a double over C&D (good to firm) last month. Seems unlikely to benefit from a strongly-run race on this occasion but still looked to be in good form when beaten 5¾ lengths in his hat-trick bid at Ascot subsequently.

Class Advantage

6/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above6/05 · mark par6/055/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par29/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par21/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par8/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par4/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%6/05Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 46%29/06Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%8/08Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 58%4/09
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.1%Ahead 3/4
9
5
OR 93
9/2
Looka silks

Mr Omar Esmail Ghrghar

3yo Colt · 8-13

Munnings - Intentonseduction (Street Sense)

S M Levey70%M Botti
61551
6.0Class ↓1
Hood

Down the field in the Solario on the back of his Kempton novice win last summer. Much improved for return to front-running tactics when landing a useful handicap at Kempton latest. Mixed messages regarding the strength of that form and has more on his plate up in grade here.

Class Advantage

3/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a3/076/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/08 · C3 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par3/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places) · 20%Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 38%3/07Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%6/08Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%30/08Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 20%8/08Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +29.7%Ahead 3/4
7
3
OR 100
18/1
Commander's Intent silks

Victorious Forever

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Victor Ludorum - Lilienbloom (Mastercraftsman)

Callum Rodriguez60%George Scott
122253
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓1

Ended useful juvenile season on a high when runner-up in 7f listed event at Chantilly. Wasn't beaten far despite trailing the field in the Craven on return. Gelded since finishing third in German Group 3 in April and seemingly has plenty on at the weights on first start in open company.

Class Advantage

29/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a29/0521/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par25/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par11/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/10 · mark par16/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/04 · mark par16/04projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 100%29/05Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 86%11/10Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%16/04
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.6%Ahead 2/4
2
8
OR 100
10/1
Mister Winston silks

Norman Court Stud

4yo Gelding · 9-10

Churchill - Crazee Diamond (Rock Of Gibraltar)

P J McDonaldA M Balding80%
610078
3.0

Free-going sort. On the up when successful at Newmarket/Epsom prior to having excuses in the Hunt Cup/Golden Mile. Shaped as though back in reasonable form when beaten 5 lengths at Doncaster (1m) last time and handicapper has at least offered a 2-lb reprieve.

Class Advantage

2/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/055/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par17/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below17/06 · mark par31/07 · C2 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par8/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 55%2/05Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 23 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 23 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 19%17/06Pos 14 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 24%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 33%8/08Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 56%12/09
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.8%Ahead 3/4
1
6
OR 104
4/1
Cerulean Bay silks

Nick Cable

5yo Gelding · 10-0

New Bay - Kathy Sun (Intikhab)

D Tudhope60%3/12D O'Meara60%
584290
4.0Going 7.0Class ↓1

Top-end handicapper who hasn't fired on either start since a cracking second in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood. Does have a good record at this course, though, and looks well worth another chance with sights lowered.

Class Advantage

17/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par17/0611/07 · C2 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par26/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par31/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par8/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par20/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 85%17/06Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 42%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 40%26/07Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 94%Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 11%8/08Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 15%20/08
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.2%Ahead 1/4
3
4
OR 100
5/1
Centigrade silks

Highclere Thoroughbred Racing - Buzzar

4yo Colt · 9-10

Too Darn Hot - Turko Beach (Hard Spun)

H Crouch60%R M Beckett60%
21168
4.0Class ↓1

Had some strong juvenile form prior to overcoming a 20-month absence in impressive style at Southwell in June. Never placed to justify favouritism in a well-contested York handicap before pulling away his chance in a listed event at Sandown latest. Remains well treated if putting it all together.

Class Advantage

30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/0825/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par16/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places) · 20%Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%30/08Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%25/10Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%18/06Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 62%20/08Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 22%16/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.9%Ahead 2/4
8
7
OR 96
22/1
Checkandchallenge silks

Mr A Hetherton

7yo Gelding · 9-6

Fast Company - Likeable (Dalakhani)

Callum Shepherd70%1/13W J Knight90%
060300
3.0Class ↓2
Visor

Hasn't been seen to best effect on either start since finishing 4 lengths third in a solid York handicap in July. Given a chance by the handicapper following latest tardy start, though will need to be sharpened up by return of more severe headgear to end a long losing streak.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par18/0416/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par17/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par20/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places)Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 61%18/04Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 67%17/06Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 14 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 14 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%20/08Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 31%12/09
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +19.0%Ahead 3/4
10
9
OR 84
14/1
Desperate Dan silks

Mr Mark Venus & Mr Peter Chapple-hyam

5yo Gelding · 8-9

Dandy Man - Angel Grace (Dark Angel)

George Wood60%P W Chapple-Hyam
614196
4.0Going 8.0

Never looked like justifying support when bidding to land a third career heavy-ground handicap at Goodwood in June. Tendency to race freely gives pause on return from 3 months away, and he could be one for later in the autumn.

Class Advantage

25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par25/078/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par8/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/10 · mark par25/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above25/10 · mark par28/03 · C2 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par12/06projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Heavy (Soft in places) · 33%Dist: 7f 212y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 17%25/07Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 70%8/10Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 62%28/03Pos 6 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 6 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 29%12/06
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.1%Ahead 2/4