12:37 · Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 5f 61yGoing TBCClass 23YO plusTURFHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
2
OR 105
7/1
Roaring Legend silks

Mr Alan Peterson

6yo Gelding · 9-12

Roaring Lion - Amarysia (Medicean)

Colin Keane0/2O Murphy80%
322652
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓1
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Made a positive start for Olly Murphy when twice runner-up in 2m all-weather handicaps at Lingfield in February. Little impact in listed events on his next 2 starts but back to form when coming from rear to finish runner-up in a 10-runner handicap at Newmarket (1¾m, good to firm) 71 days ago.

Class Advantage

12/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/096/02 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/02 · mark par27/02 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/02 · mark par4/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par13/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par10/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par10/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 83%12/09Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 86%27/02Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 20%13/06Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 89%10/07
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.4%Ahead 3/4
4
5
OR 102
11/2
French Duke silks

Wathnan Racing

5yo Gelding · 9-9

Sea The Stars - Duchess Of France (Dylan Thomas)

Callum Rodriguez60%H Al Jehani
160662
5.0Going 8.0

Doubled his tally for new yard at Meydan (1½m) in January. Bounced back to form when beaten just a nose in a 16-runner heritage handicap (1½m, good to soft) 29 days ago. Winner of that race has since scored in listed company and he's a player after a 5 lb rise.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/0816/01 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par24/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par6/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par21/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength22%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 78%22/08Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 38%19/06Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 55%6/08Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 93%21/08
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.5%Ahead 2/4
2
Top Pick1
OR 104
10/1
Furthur silks

Merry Pranksters/Lizzie Jelfs/R Gorell

4yo Gelding · 9-11

Waldgeist - Danamight (Danetime)

W Buick60%0/1A M Balding80%
046040
4.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Landed the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury last August. Below his best this season, failing to revive for first-time cheekpieces when down the field in the Ebor 4 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

4/11 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a4/1115/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par28/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/05 · mark par18/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/06 · mark par3/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 57%4/11Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 17%28/05Pos 10 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%3/07Pos 18 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 19%22/08
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.1%Ahead 2/4
5
4
OR 97
5/1
Insanity silks

McNeill Family & The Spero Partnership

6yo Gelding · 9-4

Nathaniel - Queen's Dream (Oasis Dream)

Rossa Ryan70%2/8A King80%
220206
3.0Going 8.0

Lightly raced this season but resumed with a good second at Pontefract (1¼m, good) in April and shaped as if back in form after another 7-week break when sixth of 10 in handicap at Ascot (1½m, good to firm) 42 days ago. Can strip fitter for that outing and merits consideration.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/0811/10 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/10 · mark par8/11 · C2 · finish vs mark above8/11 · mark par21/04 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par19/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par8/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 89%22/08Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 92%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 48%8/11Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 13 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 13 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 25%19/06Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 44%8/08
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.9%Ahead 2/4
9
Market Fav7
OR 90
10/3
Primo Lara silks

Queensbury Racing & Partner

5yo Gelding · 8-11

New Bay - Fact Or Folklore (Lope De Vega)

R L Moore60%Jane Chapple-Hyam
251141
7.0

Back-to-back wins in July at Wolverhampton on final outing for Jack Morland and at Ascot before finishing a good fourth in a York heritage handicap. Continued his run of good form when winning an 11-runner handicap at Kempton (1½m) 14 days ago and he should hold his own after a 4 lb rise.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par3/0614/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par21/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par5/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 89%3/06Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%6/07Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%21/08Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%5/09
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.5%Ahead 3/4
12
8
OR 88
13/2
Pearl River silks

Lord Carnarvon

3yo Colt · 8-2

Cotai Glory - Safiyna (Sinndar)

S De Sousa60%R Hannon60%
120542
5.0Class ↓1

Doubled his tally at York (10.3f) in May and despite not really looking well suited by the drop back to that trip, he produced his best effort since when runner-up in a 15-runner event at that same C&D 2 weeks ago. Should benefit from this return to further.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par23/0530/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par31/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par22/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par6/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%23/05Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 50%Pos 15 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%11/07Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%22/08Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 93%6/09
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength92%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.5%Ahead 3/4
8
6
OR 92
12/1
Explode silks

Barratt Racing

4yo Gelding · 8-13

Sottsass - Fuse (Teofilo)

S M Levey70%0/1Faye Bramley60%
608110
7.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

In fine form for current yard and followed up Catterick (1½m) success in July with victory in 5-runner handicap at Newbury (1½m, good to firm) last month. Only workmanlike when landing the odds over hurdles at Newton Abbot 12 days ago and this rates as a tougher assignment.

Class Advantage

8/01 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a8/0129/06 · C3 · finish vs mark below29/06 · mark par22/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par21/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 86%8/01Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%22/07Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 15 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 15 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 7%21/08Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%7/09
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.3%Ahead 3/4
3
3
OR 102
20/1
Fantasy World silks

Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Make Believe - Donau (High Chaparral)

Rob Hornby2/3A M Balding80%
115317
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓2
1st Tongue Strap +2

Signed off 2025 with a useful victory in listed race at Ascot. Needs to prove he retains that ability, though, having run poorly on first start back for Andrew Balding (following an ordinary spell over hurdles). Now sports tongue strap.

Class Advantage

23/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/086/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par3/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par15/02 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/02 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 64%23/08Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 100%3/10Pos 4 · SP 30/100 | Expected: 98%Pos 4 · SP 30/100 | Actual: 70%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 60%21/02Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 14%22/08
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.9%Ahead 1/4
6
9
OR 94
25/1
Circus Of Rome silks

Mr Alex Smith

4yo Gelding · 9-1

Circus Maximus - Sea Meets Sky (Dansili)

Finley Marsh70%3/12R Hughes80%
465000
2.0Class ↓1

Made good progress in 2025, winning 3 times. Only tenth of 20 when one of the market leaders for the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and made no impression from off the pace in Ebor 4 weeks ago, so has a bit to prove at present.

Class Advantage

6/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/093/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par2/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par13/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par27/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%6/09Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%2/05Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 53%27/06Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 29%22/08
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.4%Ahead 3/4
10
10
OR 86
8/1
Bulletin silks

Whitcoombe Park Racing

4yo Gelding · 8-7

Advertise - Mountrice Lady (Acclamation)

Ray DawsonJ G Portman
243425
4.0Going 8.0

Winless since scoring at Kempton in August 2025 but he's proven reliable, making the frame on his next 8 starts and beaten only by a bright prospect back at Kempton last month. Quick turnaround perhaps to blame for a rare below-par effort at Newmarket 4 weeks ago and he's the type to bounce back.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par9/0527/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par6/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par2/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par12/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par22/08 · C3 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 92%9/05Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 83%6/06Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 91%12/08Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%22/08
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.2%Ahead 2/4
11
11
OR 84
33/1
Oneforthegutter silks

Tracey Bell & Caroline Lyons

7yo Gelding · 8-5

Muhaarar - Rainbow Springs (Selkirk)

K T O'Neill1/2Ian Williams80%
878875
3.0Class ↓2
Tongue strap1st Visor +2

Very useful staying handicapper at his best but no better than mid-division in 5 starts this season. First-time visor needs to spark a revival.

Class Advantage

12/12 · C2 · finish vs mark above12/12 · mark par12/122/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par20/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par10/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par8/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par29/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 13%12/12Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 36%20/06Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 33%8/08Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%29/08
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.4%Ahead 3/4
7
12
OR 94
25/1
Real Dream silks

Macable Partnership

7yo Gelding · 9-1

Lope De Vega - Laganore (Fastnet Rock)

Charles BishopIan Williams
077070
2.0Class ↓1
Tongue strap

Has slipped in the weights this season and rather caught the eye after meeting trouble in running at Newmarket on his penultimate start. That form has worked out well but he didn't confirm it himself when beating only one home in the Ebor.

Class Advantage

28/03 · C2 · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par28/037/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/05 · mark par30/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par16/06 · C2 · finish vs mark below16/06 · mark par10/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 61y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 13 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%28/03Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 45%30/05Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 33%10/07Pos 21 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 21 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 5%22/08
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength6%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.9%Ahead 4/4