16:30 · Kempton

Racing TV Fillies' Handicap

1mStandardClass 53YO plusPOLYTRACKHandicap10 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 70
12/1
Freda silks

The Fat Jockey Partnership

4yo Filly · 10-0

Decorated Knight - Heartasia (Danehill Dancer)

Ashley Lewis60%P Phelan
236154
6.0Going 8.0

Off the mark at the fourth attempt in novice over this C&D in April. Just a solid start to her handicap career but a 2 lb ease in the weights means she's eligible for this lesser band of handicap.

Class Advantage

7/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/0110/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/04 · mark par20/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 100%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 86%7/01Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%25/03Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 64%20/05Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 75%9/09
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.6%Ahead 3/4
4
Market Fav2
OR 68
7/4
Nothing But Love silks

Mrs Susan Scargill

4yo Filly · 9-12

Land Force - Alnoras (Kingman)

Callum Hutchinson60%1/3Dr J D Scargill
5421
6.0
Hood

Main rival flopped but she got the job done on fourth start in maiden company over 7f 3 weeks ago. Will be as effective back over 1m but more on her plate switched to a handicap.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/066/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/076/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/081/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 64%6/06Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 73%6/07Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 67%6/08Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%1/09
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +51.6%Ahead 4/4
6
3
OR 68
7/1
Protectrix silks

Mr J Butler

3yo Filly · 9-8

St Mark's Basilica - Ajaadat (Shamardal)

Billy Loughnane80%J Butler60%
763
6.0

Big prices all starts but showed a lot more than previously on her final qualifying run when third over C&D 2 weeks ago. Bred to be better than this grade and there should be plenty more to come.

Class Advantage

23/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/0713/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/089/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength71%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 100%Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 50%23/07Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 38%13/08Pos 3 · SP 400/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 400/1 | Actual: 80%9/09
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +55.8%Ahead 3/3
9
4
OR 62
11/4
Sunshine And Roses silks

Amazing Racing

3yo Filly · 9-2

Massaat - Sunshineandbubbles (Multiplex)

Rose Dawes60%0/3−5lbJ Channon
712202
5.0Going 8.0

Gained a breakthrough success at Wolverhampton in July and shaped well when runner-up next 2 outings. Possibly unsuited by softer conditions upped to 1¼m back on turf when well held at Ffos Las but quickly back on track on all-weather when second at Lingfield 11 days ago.

Class Advantage

28/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par28/0621/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par18/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/08 · mark par28/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par12/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 67%Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 40%28/06Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 80%8/08Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 11 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 11 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%28/08Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%12/09
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength76%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.2%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 70
10/1
Too Too Divine silks

Hampstead Holdings, Llc

3yo Filly · 9-10

Starman - Ridge Ranger (Bushranger)

George Wood60%0/1J R Fanshawe60%
45315
5.0

Progressive Starman filly who gained a first success in 6f maiden (just failed but promoted after being carried left) at Nottingham in July. Unable to find requisite improvement needed to defy opening mark at Newmarket and now goes up in trip.

Class Advantage

4/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a4/1130/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 20%Dist: 1m · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%4/11Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 20%30/04Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 80%10/06Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 86%21/07Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 33%21/08
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.1%Ahead 2/4
2
6
OR 70
15/2
Liberate silks

Mr John Joseph Smith

4yo Filly · 10-0

Study Of Man - Be Free (Selkirk)

Finley Marsh70%J & S Best
559215
4.0Class ↓3

Went one better than on stable debut when sharing the spoils in a 7-runner handicap at Brighton (1¼m, good to firm) last month. Soft ground probably more of an issue than a penalty at Chepstow and she's now back on all-weather.

Class Advantage

24/05 · C7 · finish vs mark above24/05 · mark par24/0526/06 · C7 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par28/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below28/07 · mark par21/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par24/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par31/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 78%24/05Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 79%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%28/07Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%24/08Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%31/08
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.5%Ahead 2/4
3
7
OR 68
50/1
Mollie Foster silks

The Horse Watchers 11

4yo Filly · 9-12

Acclamation - Dutch Dream (Dutch Art)

Jason Watson70%0/1D M Loughnane80%
666660
2.0Class ↓4
1st Blinkers +3

Won at Southwell over 1m last October but going through the motions this year. Blinkers replace cheekpieces in quest to bounce back.

Class Advantage

16/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/01 · mark par16/0111/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/02 · mark par24/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/03 · mark par13/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 67%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%16/01Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 17%24/03Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%22/08Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 25%11/09
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength14%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +17.6%Ahead 3/4
10
8
OR 57
12/1
Case Study silks

Mrs L J Mongan

3yo Filly · 8-11

Showcasing - Boodley (Acclamation)

L Morris70%Mrs L J Mongan60%
558204
4.0
Cheek pieces

Standout effort when second on the Lingfield polytrack in June (split next-time-out winners) failing to get back on track fitted with blinkers at Wolverhampton the following month. Has since left George Boughey.

Class Advantage

17/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0910/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par4/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 20%17/09Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 42%15/05Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 10 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 10 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%19/06Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%21/07
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength23%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.3%Ahead 2/4
7
9
OR 68
25/1
Bofa Beach silks

Mr J Butler

3yo Filly · 9-8

Kameko - Having A Blast (Exchange Rate)

D Egan60%J Butler60%
403930
2.0

Third in 1m maiden on reappearance at Gowran before perhaps stretched by the longer trip next time. Always behind on handicap debut over 7f last month and has since transferred yards (one of 3 John Butler representatives).

Class Advantage

27/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/0627/09 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a20/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par4/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below4/07 · mark par7/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below7/08 · mark par7/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move3
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 75%27/06Pos 27 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 27 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%20/05Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%4/07Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 18%7/08
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.8%Ahead 1/4
8
10
OR 68
33/1
Goomah silks

Northumbria Leisure Ltd

3yo Filly · 9-8

Sioux Nation - Red Raven (Raven's Pass)

S M Levey70%J Butler60%
76308
2.0

Stepped up on juvenile efforts when ¾-length third of 9 in maiden at Leopardstown on return but much too free on handicap bow at the Curragh then well held at Fairyhouse in July. Another new John Butler acquisition.

Class Advantage

24/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a24/0826/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a10/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a24/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/05 · mark par8/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/07 · mark par8/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move3
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 20%Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 57%24/08Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 58%26/09Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 75%10/05Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%24/05Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%8/07
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.6%Ahead 2/4