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17:43 · Churchill Downs

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming

1m 110y3YO plusDIRT7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 83
8/5
Birch Run silks

Daniel Sullivan Iii

Birch Run

3yo Filly · 8-8

Practical Joke - Doria Road (Quality Road)

Jose Ortiz60%Paul McGee
069325
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

22/11 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/11 · mark par22/1118/01 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/01 · mark par12/04 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below12/04 · mark par10/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/05 · mark par3/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below3/06 · mark par11/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 86%22/11Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 18%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 44%12/04Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 78%3/06Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 86%11/07
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.8%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 80
5/2
Lexico silks

Thomas, Michael J , Weiter, Joseph A , Allen, Jeff W And Habeeb, Donald J

Lexico

3yo Filly · 8-8

Lexitonian - Synkros (Tapit)

Rafael Bejarano60%0/1Donald Habeeb
243942
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

26/02 · C9 · finish vs mark below26/02 · mark par26/0213/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par11/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below11/04 · mark par30/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below30/04 · mark par9/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below9/07 · mark par23/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 89%26/02Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 57%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%11/04Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%9/07Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 88%23/08
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.6%Ahead 0/4
4
5
OR 65
4/1
Twisted Viper silks

T And E Racing (taylor A Logan)

Twisted Viper

4yo Filly · 8-12

Complexity - Diamonds At Dawn (Lookin At Lucky)

Tyler Gaffalione60%0/1Joe Sharp60%
70352
5.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

22/03 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/032/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/05 · mark par14/06 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par18/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below18/08 · mark par26/09 · C9 · finish vs mark below26/09 · mark par26/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 45%22/03Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 8%2/05Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%14/06Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 43%18/08Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%26/09
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.5%Ahead 2/4
5
4
OR 65
6/1
Watershed Moment silks

Nguyen, Calvin And Tran, Joey C

Watershed Moment

4yo Filly · 8-12

Omaha Beach - Tiz Briska (Tiznow)

Cristian Torres60%Robert Medina
522245
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

13/02 · C9 · finish vs mark below13/02 · mark par13/028/03 · C9 · finish vs mark above8/03 · mark par17/04 · C9 · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par15/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par5/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par23/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%13/02Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 80%17/04Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 83%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 40%5/06Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 50%23/08
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.9%Ahead 1/4
3
Value2
OR 72
12/1
Depencier silks

Kirk, Kat And Sanders, Wayne R

Depencier

3yo Filly · 8-8

Connect - Peace Front (War Front)

Brian Jr Hernandez60%W Calhoun70%
3336
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3
1st Blinkers +3

Class Advantage

10/10 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/101/11 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/11 · mark par1/11projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength73%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 78%10/10Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 80%1/11
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.5%Ahead 1/2
1
6
OR 67
15/1
Main Mischief silks

Stoneway Farm

Main Mischief

3yo Filly · 8-8

Maximus Mischief - Qaswara (Pioneerof The Nile)

Yedsit Hazlewood60%Michael McCarthy
40
3.0

Class Advantage

11/07 · C9 · finish vs mark n/a11/07
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 57%11/07
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -19.2%Ahead 0/1
7
7
OR 67
8/1
Rotisserie silks

Penny Lauer

Rotisserie

3yo Filly · 8-8

Flameaway - Three Birds (Central Banker)

D E SheehyMichael Lauer
225597
2.0Class ↓2

Class Advantage

9/04 · C9 · finish vs mark above9/04 · mark par9/047/05 · C9 · finish vs mark above7/05 · mark par29/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below29/05 · mark par14/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below14/06 · mark par12/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below12/07 · mark par16/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 91%9/04Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 60%29/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%12/07Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 14%16/08
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.2%Ahead 2/4