16:20 · Ayr

Slater Menswear Handicap

1m 5f 26yGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
10
Top Pick1
OR 54
8/1
Ebony Maw silks

Mr B Jordan

9yo Gelding · 9-0

Iffraaj - Skirrid (Halling)

Jason Hart60%1/10Ewan Whillans80%
743133
8.0
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Benefited from return to positive tactics when successful in a lesser handicap here in early-July. Continued in good nick with back-to-back thirds at Hamilton, latterly beaten 2 lengths in this grade. May have to settle for minor honours in his bid for a fourth C&D victory, though.

Class Advantage

8/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/04 · mark par8/0421/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par11/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par2/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%8/04Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%19/06Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 71%11/08Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 82%2/09
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.5%Ahead 4/4
4
Market Fav2
OR 64
11/4
Cascade Hall silks

Whitestonecliffe Racing Partnership

7yo Gelding · 9-10

Court Cave - Bacchonthebottle (Bob Back)

Lauren Young60%3/8−5lbJ S Goldie
433721
8.0Going 8.0
Hood

Front runner who's won decisively 3 times this year (including at this course). Escapes a penalty for 21-length success at Chester 7 days ago and while that form can be taken with pinch of salt (others possibly floundered in soft ground), he should take all the beating.

Class Advantage

4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par4/0713/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par31/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par25/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 40%4/07Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%31/07Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 86%4/09Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%11/09
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.2%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 63
7/1
Alpine Sierra silks

Mr James Callow & Mr J S Goldie

8yo Gelding · 9-9

Distorted Humor - Unaccompanied (Danehill Dancer)

P Mulrennan60%1/24J S Goldie
119353
5.0Going 8.0

Completed a hat-trick at Carlisle in May. Best effort since when 2 lengths third of 11 on return to softer ground at Haydock last time. Cascade Hall looks the best treated of the Goldie trio, though.

Class Advantage

21/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par21/0529/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par24/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par27/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%21/05Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 11%24/06Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%27/07Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 80%3/09
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.3%Ahead 2/4
6
3
OR 70
4/1
Mr Moonshine silks

The Musley Bank Partnership & Partner

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Cotai Glory - Whiskey 'n' Chips (Dark Angel)

Warren Fentiman60%R A Fahey60%
452331
7.0Class ↓5

In good heart prior to showing improved form to get off the mark in 3-y-o handicap at Southwell (1½m) last time. A 4 lb rise probably prevents a follow up on return to open company.

Class Advantage

17/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/099/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%17/09Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 80%11/07Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 78%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 50%13/08Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.2%Ahead 2/4
2
4
OR 68
10/1
Junkyard Dog silks

A Sinclair, David Carroll & G Gibson

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Fastnet Rock - Gold Bracelet (Montjeu)

A Mullen70%1/3I Jardine60%
589214
5.0
Visor

Fair winner in Ireland. Built on an encouraging Carlisle second to get off the mark for current yard at Southwell last month. Shaped as though ready for this step back up in trip when 3¾ lengths fourth in a slightly higher grade at Newcastle (1¼m) latest.

Class Advantage

16/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/02 · mark par16/0231/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/03 · mark par9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par6/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%16/02Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 11%9/06Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 100%6/08Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 63%3/09
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.6%Ahead 3/4
7
7
OR 62
16/1
Furhaan silks

Johnnie Delta Racing

4yo Gelding · 9-8

Showcasing - Galaxy Highflyer (Galileo)

Rhys Elliott60%0/1−5lbJ S Goldie
752349
4.0

Has drawn a blank since handicap debut success for Ed Walker last autumn. Found his run of good form in staying handicaps coming to a halt from 4 lb out of the weights at York last time. Unlikely to be the stable's leading hope back down in trip, though does at least race off his proper mark here.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par17/0527/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par25/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par6/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%17/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 88%11/07Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 63%25/08Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 27%6/09
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.3%Ahead 2/4
1
11
OR 69
7/1
Arch Enemy silks

Black Steel Square Syndicate

7yo Mare · 10-1

Alhebayeb - Pointed Arch (Rock Of Gibraltar)

P J McDonaldP Magee
611054
4.0Class ↓4

Capitalised on a reduced mark on return at Navan before doing well to defy a penalty at Killarney in July. Still looked in good form both starts last month, beaten 3¼ lengths in a big-field Cork handicap (1½m, good to soft) latest. Player for capable Irish yard (0-5 with UK runners to date).

Class Advantage

28/03 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par28/0311/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par15/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par30/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par1/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below1/08 · mark par30/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 62%28/03Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%15/07Pos 12 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 12 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 31%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 73%1/08Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 82%30/08
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.5%Ahead 3/4
9
6
OR 55
16/1
Just Dottie silks

Mr R Michael Smith

8yo Mare · 9-1

Al Kazeem - Blaise Chorus (Singspiel)

J P Sullivan60%R M Smith
541347
4.0
Tongue strap

Strong-travelling mare. Won this corresponding event on soft ground 12 months ago. Probably in better heart than recent form figures over hurdles might suggest. Tongue strap on first time in this sphere and place claims from 3 lb higher than last year.

Class Advantage

21/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par21/057/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/06 · mark par2/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 40%21/05Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%2/07Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%15/08Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 29%7/09
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -37.7%Ahead 0/4
8
9
OR 57
12/1
Sophiesticate silks

The Market Traders

7yo Mare · 9-3

War Command - Lenoire (Galileo)

C Horgan−5lbR M Smith
633316
5.0

Knocking on the door prior to emphatically resuming winning ways at Musselburgh (13f) in late-July. Couldn't extend her run of good form back under much more testing conditions at Hamilton subsequently and may need to come back down the handicap now.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par4/0622/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%4/06Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%30/06Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%31/07Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%2/09
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.1%Ahead 2/4
3
8
OR 67
25/1
Two Auld Pals silks

Mutual Friends & Russell

8yo Gelding · 9-13

The Carbon Unit - Lady Jock (Giant's Causeway)

Lexie Clarkson−7lbL Russell & M Scudamore
314690
6.0Class ↓4

Had gone off the boil when last seen on the Flat here last autumn. Back in form when successful over hurdles earlier this summer but hard to be confident he'll translate that form back on the level following 3 months away.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par25/1028/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/11 · mark par13/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/01 · mark par16/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/02 · mark par9/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par6/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par6/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 80%25/10Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 75%13/01Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 46%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%9/05Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 40%6/06
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.7%Ahead 2/4
11
10
OR 52
12/1
Off Spin silks

S Bulmer, P Hebdon & R Taylor

4yo Gelding · 8-12

Almanzor - Spin Doctor (Mayson)

D Allan60%0/7T D Easterby
332632
6.0
Tongue strap

Long-standing maiden. Placed twice here already this season and finished 2½-length second to a filly on a roll at Thirsk (1½m). Still relatively unexposed over this sort of trip, however, he's probably bumping into one again here.

Class Advantage

8/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par8/0619/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par19/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par27/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par14/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 5f 26y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%8/06Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 89%5/07Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 67%27/08Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 91%14/09
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.3%Ahead 2/4